Copper Hits Record Highs in 2025

Why Did Copper Prices Hit Record Highs at the End of 2025?

In December 2025, the global copper market experienced a wild surge. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) once touched a record high of $11,771/ton, while the main Shanghai copper futures contract broke through 93,000 CNY/ton. Year-to-date, prices have risen by over 30%. This price rally was not accidental—it was the inevitable result of tightening supply, surging demand, and macro capital factors resonating together.

On the supply side, major copper mines around the world experienced frequent disruptions. Chile’s El Teniente mine halted production due to accidents, Indonesia’s Grasberg mine suffered significant capacity cuts from a landslide, and the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Kamoa-Kakula mine lowered its output expectations due to seismic events. In addition, Chinese smelting companies plan to reduce mined copper capacity by more than 10% in 2026, further tightening global copper supply. Even more crucially, the market expects the U.S. to potentially impose tariffs on refined copper in 2026, causing LME copper prices to lag behind New York prices. Traders have rushed to transfer LME stocks to the U.S., leaving non-U.S. regions severely short on physical supply. LME registered warrants fell by 32.3% year-on-year, while U.S. warehouse stocks exceeded 400,000 tons, accounting for over 60% of global exchange inventories.

On the demand side, multiple drivers intensified the supply-demand gap. As “industrial blood,” copper benefits directly from energy transition and new economic growth. Under the global energy transition, wind, solar, energy storage, and new energy vehicles expanded rapidly. In 2025, China alone consumed nearly 4 million tons of copper in these sectors, and by 2030, annual copper demand in new energy is expected to surpass 10 million tons. Meanwhile, AI server and data center construction, global power grid upgrades, U.S. and European power system enhancements, and Southeast Asian infrastructure projects collectively add roughly 800,000 tons of new annual copper demand, supporting a strong long-term growth outlook.

Macro conditions and capital speculation further fueled copper prices. The Federal Reserve is in a rate-cut cycle, with the market pricing an 89% probability of a December cut. Loose liquidity has made physical assets a safe haven, highlighting copper’s allocation value. Overseas hedge funds and other institutions have increased long positions in copper futures, while domestic copper futures funds have exceeded 50 billion CNY. Investment banks such as Citi and Goldman Sachs have issued optimistic forecasts, predicting copper prices could reach as high as $15,000/ton in 2026. Meanwhile, Asian downstream companies, fearing shortages, have joined the “buying spree,” amplifying price elasticity. The combination of tight supply-demand balance, loose macro conditions, and bullish market sentiment has created a resonance that continues to push copper prices to new historical highs.